Transformative AGI by 2043 Is Less Than 1% Likely

Someone put a number on it — 0.4% chance of AGI before 2043. Meanwhile, a Mastodon poll asks: AGI or aliens first?

Someone is courageous enough to put a number on when AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) can happen [1]. :-)

Conclusion: 0.4% chance before 2043.

Incidentally I just started a fun poll asking whether AGI or aliens will come first on Mastodon.

Originally posted on LinkedIn.

References

[1] Ari Allyn-Feuer and Ted Sanders. 2023. “Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely.” http://arxiv.org/abs/2306.02519